Many property investors are aware of the well-established myth that property should double in value every 7 to 10 years. Property investors who are investing with the long-term capital growth strategy might also rely on this and hold onto this expectation to assist with their long-term retirement plans, however it is not necessarily entirely accurate.
When considering property values and predicting their future value, this is not simple. No one has a crystal ball and (like any investment) nothing is guaranteed, otherwise everyone would be killing it!
The issue with relying on this statistic is that it ignores that there are markets within markets, and we cannot consider the overall performance and historical statistics of the Australian property market to perform the same as a whole, when there are thousands of micro markets to consider.
Many investors will rely on the “Rule of 72” which offers a simplified method to estimate the time for your investment to double in value. To perform the calculation, you divide 72 by the average annual growth rate. For instance, with an annual growth rate of 7%, a property’s value would double in roughly 10.2 years. But you need to understand this rule as only a guide as there are many outside influencers that are not taken into consideration and annual growth rates can fluctuate significantly and are not straight lined.
When looking at median values as of May 2025, Australia’s median house price stands at approximately $934,500. According to CoreLogic, the average annual growth rate for the past 30 years is approximately 5.4% which provides a timeframe to double in value of 13.3 years (using the Rule of 72), however as an example when considering a well performing area like Byron Bay, whose average annual growth rate for houses is 12.47% (source CoreLogic), then the time to double your investment value is only expected to be 5.8years. This is significantly shorter than the national average of 13.3 years and demonstrated why the assumption of 7-10years cannot apply.
Economic drivers of property price increases
Several key economic factors influence property price growth in Australia:
- Supply and Demand: Limited housing supply amidst growing demand, especially in urban centres, drives up property prices.
- Interest Rates: Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, increasing buyer capacity, and fuelling demand.
- Population Growth: Migration and natural population increase heighten housing demand, particularly in major cities.
- Government Policies: Tax incentives, grants, and infrastructure investments can stimulate property markets.
- Economic Conditions: Overall economic health, employment rates, and wage growth influence buyer confidence and purchasing power.
Top suburbs where property prices have doubled over the past 10 years.
Several suburbs across Australia have witnessed property values doubling over the past decade. Here are notable examples:
New South Wales (NSW)
- Byron Bay: Median house price surged from approximately $850,000 in 2014 to $3.5 million in 2024. This is more than quadrupling in 10 years.
- Jindabyne: Increased from $377,500 to $1.26 million, averaging 12.8% annual growth.
- Casuarina: Rose from $685,000 to $2.065 million, with an 11.7% annual growth rate.
Queensland (QLD)
- Noosa Heads: In past 10 years, has grown from an average $642,500 to $2.05 million, marking a 12.3% annual increase.
- Doonan: Increased from $627,500 to $1.98 million, averaging 12.2% annual growth.
- Miami: Rose from $560,000 to $1.727 million, with an 11.9% annual growth rate.
Victoria (VIC)
- Bright: Current median house price $1.01million and an average annual growth rate of 10.43% over the past decade.
- Beechworth: Grew from $297,000 to $890,000, reflecting an 11.6% annual growth rate.
Western Australia (WA)
It is important to recognise that certain areas in Perth and its surroundings have experienced notable growth. With the recent boom in Perth, suburbs have seen house prices double over the past decade with the largest increase in growth occurring in the past 2 years.
- Bullsbrook: Current median house price of $695,000 and an average annual growth rate for the past decade of 13.44%.
- Gwelup: Current median house price of $1.54million is one of the country’s top performers with an average annual growth rate in the past decade of 14%.
- Armadale: Experiencing a current boom in recent years, the 10-year average growth rate reflects a 21.82% growth in property prices, with the current median house price sitting at $550,000. This reflects that cheaper properties may have a higher percentage of growth but in dollar terms, return might be lower.
Comparing “High-End” growth to more affordable locations.
The rate at which property values double can differ between high-end and affordable properties. Generally, more affordable properties tend to experience faster value growth due to higher demand and greater accessibility for a broader segment of buyers. In contrast, luxury properties, such as those priced at $3 million and above, may take longer to double in value, as they cater to a niche market with fewer potential buyers. This difference in demand dynamics can lead to varying growth trajectories between property segments. Also consider the dollar value of returns. For a $500 000 property to double value in 10 years, your average annual return percentage would be 7.2% and the return is $500 000 which averages $50 000 per year.
However, consider a higher end property with a value of $3.5million. For the same return of $500 000, the average annual return rate only needs to be 1.35%.
Even if it takes twice as long to double in value, say 20 years. You’ve made $3.5million in 20 years which averages $175 000 per year which is still more than 3 times the return of the cheaper property even though the growth is much slower.
For a property investor, you need to weight up this value proposition of property purchase price vs capital growth over the long term.
Investing with a strategy
Whether you’re a keen property investor or just starting out, your focus should not be when your property will double in value, but rather what investment strategy will you be using that suits your individual circumstances and needs at this stage in your journey.
There is no point in buying one property that you hope will double in value in 10 years and being maxed out (in terms of serviceability) and you are halted in growing your investment portfolio.
It is wise to consider the best investment strategy for your needs and what will enable you to achieve your short term and long-term lifestyle goals. Seeking the help of a professional can really put you on the right path and set a strategy that can enable your success.
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Disclaimer:
Aus Property Professionals Pty Ltd retains the copyright in relation to all the information contained on its website and in this guide. This guide, and any content provided in addition, or linked to resources, is general information only and not investment advice. As everyone’s individual situation is different, we advise individuals to always seek advice from relevant professionals such as legal, financial, accounting, and investing experts.
The intention of this guide is to be used for general information purposes only, in addition to your personal research and due diligence. We do not take any responsibility for any actions taken as a result of this guide as any actions should always be taken with consultation with relevant professionals who take individual circumstances to account.
Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
We have compiled the information contained in this guide from online resources, our research, and consultations, and we cannot guarantee the complete accuracy of this information, and we will always reference the resources where the data and information was derived.
